You've probably seen the headlines this week. Sellers outnumber buyers by the largest gap in more than a decade. The housing market has shifted. Buyers finally have the upper hand.
That's true. Nationally.
But if you own a home in Hunterdon, Somerset, Morris, Monmouth, or Mercer County, those headlines are not describing your market. And I think you should know why.
The national picture
Redfin's data shows there are roughly 630,000 more home sellers than buyers across the country right now, the widest gap since at least 2013. In markets like South Florida, Texas, and the Southwest, inventory has surged, days on market have stretched, and sellers are cutting prices to move homes. About 36 out of the 50 largest metros are now classified as buyer's markets.
That's a real shift. And for most of the country, it's meaningful.
What's actually happening in New Jersey
New Jersey is in the minority. The Northeast as a whole continues to operate differently from the national trend, and our counties are a clear example of why.
Here's what the data shows right now:
New Jersey has only about 3 months of supply statewide which is well below the 6 months that defines a balanced market. Homes are still selling at or above asking price. The statewide median home price reached $545,300 in March, up 3.7% year over year. And in markets like Morris County, homes are selling after just 31 days, with prices up nearly 10% compared to last January.
The reason is structural. New Jersey is short more than 200,000 housing units, and that shortage has been building for years. New construction here is a fraction of what's being built in the Sun Belt. Demand from New York City hasn't subsided, buyers looking for space, commuter access, and lifestyle — has not faded. It has simply become more patient and more selective.
What this week's hyperlocal numbers are telling me
Here's a snapshot of activity across our specific counties as of this week:
|
County |
Active |
Under Contract |
Sold |
Price Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Hunterdon |
66 |
43 |
25 |
8 |
|
Somerset |
140 |
99 |
53 |
29 |
|
Morris |
212 |
151 |
94 |
43 |
|
Monmouth |
292 |
159 |
136 |
94 |
|
Mercer |
134 |
121 |
71 |
57 |
A few things stand out to me here.
The under-contract numbers are strong relative to active inventory across every county. Hunterdon has 43 homes under contract against 66 active — that's an absorption rate that tells you buyers are still moving decisively on well-priced homes. Somerset and Morris look similar. The market is not stalled. It is selective.
Price changes are the number worth watching. They tell you where the gap between seller expectations and buyer reality exists right now. In Morris and Monmouth especially, sellers who are anchored to 2021 pricing are adjusting. Sellers who priced accurately to today's market are already under contract.
What this means if you're thinking about selling
This is not the moment to wait for a better market. The structural conditions that protect New Jersey home values — constrained supply, consistent demand, no significant new construction pipeline — are not going away. But the margin for overpricing has narrowed. Buyers are informed, patient, and comparing every home carefully. Presentation and pricing strategy matter more than they did two years ago.
If you're curious what your home would realistically sell for right now, I'm happy to walk through the numbers with you. No pressure, no obligation. Just an honest conversation.
What this means if you're thinking about buying
The national headlines actually do hand you something real: sellers are more willing to negotiate than they have been in years, mortgage rates have stabilized around 6.1%, and the frenzied bidding-war environment of 2021 and 2022 is not what you're walking into today.
In our specific counties, you will still face competition for well-priced, move-in-ready homes. But you have more time to evaluate, more opportunity to ask for concessions, and more negotiating room than this market has offered in a long time. Buyers who are sitting on the sidelines waiting for rates to drop significantly may find themselves competing against more people when that happens. The buyers who tend to win are the ones who move with a clear strategy now.
If any of this raises questions about where you stand specifically, that's exactly the conversation I'm here for.
Reach out anytime, or grab a time on my calendar for a Strategy Call.
Jennifer Stowe, Principal Apogee Real Estate Advisors at Compass
Serving Hunterdon, Somerset, Morris, Monmouth, Mercer, and Ocean Counties
908.268.5402 | [email protected] | ApogeeRealEstateAdvisors.com
Data sources: Redfin (national buyer/seller gap, February-March 2026), NAR Existing Home Sales (April 2026), HousingWire (national pricing and pending sales data), Houzeo/DeFalco Realty (NJ statewide market data), GSMLS week of 5/18/2026 (hyperlocal county snapshot provided by Jenn Stowe, Apogee Real Estate Advisors at Compass).
